Immigration reform
David Frum, in his NRO diary, provides the following instant analysis of President Bush's immigration reform proposal:
"1) The President is right that something has to be done to deal with this problem. It is wrong and dangerous to have 7-10 million living inside the borders of the United States who are largely unprotected by its laws and unrepresented in its government. Illegals do not pay taxes, often do not carry car insurance, often do not send their children to school, often do not obtain their vaccinations. A republican government does not comfortably coexist with a submerged caste within the population.
2) It is a fantasy to imagine that the US government will round up and deport all or even very many of these 7 to 10 million people. The probable alternative to reform is the maintenance of the status quo.
3) Actually the alternative is worse than the status quo, for as soon as the job market warms up, still more illegals will arrive, intensifying the problem.
4) But merely ratifying past law-breaking is not “reform.” When President Bush first took up the illegal immigration problem back in 2001, he seemed to envision a large settlement between the United States and Mexico that would oblige Mexico to put in place reforms to create jobs for Mexicans in Mexico, including the opening of the Mexican energy industry to US investment. Mexico would also cooperate with the United States in curbing the flow of migrants. All of these crucial elements have since been dropped.
5) Without them, the president’s plan does seem to contemplate an indefinite flow of illegals into the United States. While some employers will be delighted by the ability to hire Mexicans at the federal minimum wage, other less scrupulous employers will continue to prefer illegals, who work even cheaper. The president referred to the possibility of sanctions against such employers, and those would help – but ultimately the only answer is faster economic growth in Mexico.
6) The president referred to imposing new sanctions against employers who hire illegals. It will be interesting to see how serious those proposed sanctions actually prove to be – and what mechanisms will be put in place to catch employers who break the law. Will employers be affirmatively required to verify the eligibility of their workers? If not, then even harsh sanctions won’t make much difference.
"All in all: The president’s proposals do not form a coherent whole. They are a disappointment on policy grounds, and I have a bad feeling that they may turn out to be a political disappointment or worse as well."
With respect to the political consequences, Frum may have in mind these Zogby/Center for Immigration Studies poll results (hat-tip to The Evangelical Outpost). With respect to the merits of Bush's proposal, I pretty much agree with Frum. For a thoughtful presentation of the case in favor of the president, see Captain's Quarters.
