Dick Morris writes this morning that the Democratic nomination race is far from over:

Only the liberal wing of the Democratic Party has reached a conclusion in its designation of Kerry as their finalist for the nomination. There is still a big opening for a moderate candidate such Edwards or Clark... Democrats held two primaries on Tuesday in New Hampshire. In the liberal contest, Kerry bested Dean by a sufficient margin to endanger the ex- governor's candidacy. But the moderate primary was essentially a three-way tie —Edwards and Clark at 12 percent each, with Joe Lieberman only slightly behind at 9 percent.

The race will not remain a Kerry-Dean contest, but will evolve, as it always does, into one between one liberal (likely Kerry) and one moderate. The next round on Tuesday favors the moderates as we move south to South Carolina, Missouri, Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and North Dakota.

To assume the nominating process is basically over this early is to misunderstand its nature. Until a liberal beats a moderate (or vice-versa), the primaries have a long, long way to go.

Well, maybe. But the latest polls are certainly not pointing in that direction:

John Kerry, on a roll after winning the first two Democratic presidential contests, has opened big leads in Missouri and Arizona and is challenging for the top spot in South Carolina and Oklahoma....Kerry has opened a 34-point lead in Missouri and a 21-point lead in Arizona, and trails John Edwards by 1 point in South Carolina and Wesley Clark by 8 points in Oklahoma in a three-day tracking poll of the four states.

Morris's depiction of the history of the Democratic primaries in prior election cycles is probably right. But it is not clear that there is much of a moderate wing in the Democratic Party any more. The radicalization of the Democrats has been the big story of this primary season, and I think Morris will wait for a long time for a viable moderate challenger to appear. And even this conclusion assumes that the orthodox liberal John Edwards and the newly-minted hard-left Wes Clark can be considered moderates.

DEACON adds: Excellent analysis, Rocket Man. Neither Edwards nor Clark can compete with Kerry. The only way Kerry loses is if he self-destructs. The media scrutiny that Morris says Kerry must withstand will reveal a left-winger with terrible instincts about national security. This won't hurt him at all among Democrats. Dean faltered due to personality quirks that Kerry lacks, and because he was seen as unelectable. Kerry is doing well in the head-to-head polling against Bush.

I would also note that Morris had to reach in order to support his claim that the Democratic race "always" comes down to a contest between a liberal and a moderate. Who was the moderate in the 1984 contest, cited by Morris, between Walter Mondale and Gary Hart?

Posted by John at 11:57 AM  |    |  

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Power Line critiques Dick Morris' column today that the nomination is far from a done deal in the Democrat camp. I like Dick Morris. I wish I had his skill as a political consultant. But, let's remember that a few weeks ago, Morris thought that Dean ha... [Read More]

Tracked on January 30, 2004 03:28 PM