Drudge has flagged the Newsweek report of a widening Kerry lead over Bush -- "a four point bounce" -- during the last two nights of the convention. Like the ABC News/Washington Post poll we took note of earlier this week in "Beyond registered voters," however, the Newsweek poll surveys "1,010 adults aged 18 and older July 29 and July 30 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points."

The poll results aren't necessarily meaningless, but they are bogus. At least the ABC News/Washington Post poll reported the percent of registered voters sampled. Newsweek does not even report what percent of its sample is registered or even eligible to vote. My guess is that it overstates Kerry's bounce among likely voters, and that the Rasmussen tracking poll results are more reliable.

Query: When did a poll of this kind become respectable?

Posted by Scott at 05:31 PM  |    |  

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» A Bounce or a Thud? from :: Political Musings ::
From Newsweek: July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. ... [Read More]

Tracked on July 31, 2004 08:21 PM