It Couldn't Get Much Closer
Today's Rasmussen Tracking poll has President Bush leading John Kerry by a single point. The closeness of the race is manifested in the principal swing states: In Florida, Rasmussen has the President up by four points. He's up by one in Ohio, and Michigan and Pennsylvania are dead even.
Some of my optimistic friends ask me whether I really expect the election to be close. I think it will be very close indeed.
UPDATE: If you want optimism, Dafydd ab Hugh is your man. Here's Dafydd's take:
Bush will win -- and it will be by more than five percent. Pundits go on about how Kerry is such a great "closer," but that's a crock: he was a great closer in Massachusetts, because Teddy Kennedy kept riding in to rescue him when he got in serious trouble. That's in the only state in these United States that has a favorable opinion of Edward M. Kennedy; I don't think old-man Kennedy is going to be able to work his magic in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, or even Minnesota.But nobody seems to remember what a fabulous counterpuncher Bush was in 2000, in an actual presidential race. Four days before the election, he was hit with an absolute bombshell: his failure to disclose that he had once been busted for DUI. From two or three points ahead, Bush dropped overnight to four or five points behind. But he campaigned hard, and he made up that difference over just seventy-two hours, finishing as dead even as a race has ever been in this country.
Now that's some closing -- and without any celebrity help, either. That's like crashing your bike half a lap from the finish line and still jumping up and managing a tie for first.
Since the October surprise that the Democrats have planned won't be anywhere near as effective as the last one (for two reasons: because Bush is now a known quantity and because there won't be any "there" there), if he runs as hard in the last seventy-two hours, it'll be to pull that far ahead, not to catch up.
He may well finish seven or eight percent ahead -- like 52-45 with 2 for Nader and 1 for everybody else. Bush will definitely break the magic 50% barrier, something no Democrat has done in nearly thirty years.
As usual, I hope he's right.
