Emails from readers today have told us that New York Times reporters, responding to their questions about the Times' Al Qaqaa reporting, say that they interviewed an officer of the 3rd Infantry Division unit that first occupied Al Qaqaa early in April 2003, and he says that they did not search the facility for weapons. (Boy, would I like to see a transcript of that interview. But, of course, the Times isn't making it public--just their own spin.) Now, the Associated Press has made public at least a portion of their own interview with Col. David Perkins, who commanded the 2nd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division. As reported by the AP, the interview is quite different from what the Times has represented:

The infantry commander whose troops first captured the Iraqi weapons depot where 377 tons of explosives disappeared said Wednesday it is "very highly improbable" that someone could have trucked out so much material once U.S. forces arrived in the area.

Two major roads that pass near the Al-Qaqaa installation were filled with U.S. military traffic in the weeks after April 3, 2003, when U.S. troops first reached the area, said Col. David Perkins.

Perkins' description seemed to point toward the possibility that the explosives were removed before the U.S.-led invasion to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, rather than during the chaos afterward.

[T]he Pentagon said in a statement, "The movement of 377 tons of heavy ordnance would have required dozens of heavy trucks and equipment moving along the same roadways as U.S. combat divisions occupied continually for weeks prior to and subsequent to the 3rd I.D.'s arrival at the facility."

According to Perkins, his 2nd Brigade arrived in the area near Al-Qaqaa on April 3, 2003, as part of the first large coalition combat force to come so close to Baghdad. His troops were attacked by Iraqi forces based inside the installation, he said. Al-Qaqaa had more than 80 buildings in a walled complex.

Perkins estimated there were a few hundred enemy fighters. He sent the 3rd Battalion of the 15th Infantry to secure the base and the surrounding area, he said. A company of mechanized infantry and a mortar platoon entered the installation and defeated the Iraqi forces.

As the rest of Perkins' brigade moved on, the 3rd Battalion spent two days in the area looking for other Iraqi forces, Perkins said. The Americans did not specifically search for any high explosives, although they were aware that Al-Qaqaa was an important site for what was believed to be Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs.

Some troops found a white powdery substance on the base. But it was tested and determined it was not a chemical or biological weapon, as had been suspected, he said. Perkins did not know what it was.

Troops found other weapons, including artillery shells, on the base, he said. They didn't specifically search for the 377 tons of high explosives, HMX and RDX, that are missing.

I'm not sure how you would "specifically search for" seven hundred fifty-four thousand pounds of explosives, but somehow, I suspect that if you saw them, you'd notice.

Perkins described Iraq as littered with weapons and Al-Qaqaa as one munitions depot among many.

The last point is important: to date, the U.S. military has secured 400,000 tons of munitions in Iraq. At most, the Al Qaqaa explosives would represent less than 1/10 of 1% of the munitions that have been secured and, for the most part, destroyed. Let's assume that the New York Times and John Kerry are correct, even though, as noted this morning, the Times has backed off their story and said they have no idea when the explosives left Al Qaqaa. Giving the Times and Kerry the benefit of the doubt, the American armed forces were more than 99.9% effective in securing Iraqi explosives. And this is what John Kerry calls "incompetence"? His grotesque insult to America's troops should insure that he gets no votes next week from any military families, or from anyone who respects the American armed forces.

As we have already noted, news accounts in the Washington Post, the New York Times, CBS and other outlets described the search that the 3rd I.D. carried out at Al Qaqaa and the materials they found there. What they did not find there, of course, were 380 tons of explosives under U.N. seal.

The Kerry campaign's latest effort to salvage this dying story has been to seize on footage shot by a Twin Cities camera crew that was embedded with the 101st Airborne unit that passed through Al Qaqaa on its way to Baghdad, approximately six days after the 3rd I.D. The local angle is kind of interesting; many readers have noted that the Twin Cities ABC News affiliate has retained some photos and file footage that may be from Al Qaqaa. The TV station, KSTP, says:

Officials with the 101st airborne division and G.P.S. technology confirms our position on or near the southern edge of the Al Qaqaa installation back on April 18, 2003 - nine days after the fall of Baghdad.

This is, of course, after the 3rd I.D. were there.

On the April 2003 visit, our crews witnessed soldiers using bolt cutters to get into bunkers. Inside, they found many containers marked "explosives." At least one set of crates carried the name "Al-Qaqaa State Establishment."

Another bunker encountered by the 101st Airborne and the 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS crew was locked with chains and a seal left by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.  According to the IAEA, the seal marked a facility suspected of holding "dual-purpose" materials that could be used to produce nuclear weapons.

5 EYEWITNESS NEWS and experts across the country are working to learn more from these pictures and find out exactly just how close they were to Al Qaqaa.

The photos that accompany the story don't suggest anything particularly significant:

On the most generous interpretation, there are nowhere near 380 tons of explosives shown in any of the KSTP photographs, or in all of them together.

Over the course of the day, the KSTP website has been updated with this rather breathless story:

A 5 Eyewitness News crew in Iraq may have been just a door away from materials that could be used to detonate nuclear weapons. The evidence is in videotape shot by Reporter Dean Staley and Photographer Joe Caffrey at or near the Al Qaqaa munitions facility.

The video shows a cable locking a door shut. That cable is connected by a copper colored seal.

A spokesperson for the International Atomic Energy Agency told 5 Eyewitness News that seal appears to be one used by their inspectors. "In Iraq they were used when there was a concern that this could have a, what we call, dual use purpose, that there could be a nuclear weapons application."

5 Eyewitness News continues to develop new leads and uncover new developments in this story.

The video footage referred to is apparently here, although I can't make it play. What it shows, I don't know. But ABC News has jumped into the campaign on Kerry's side: what a surprise. ABC News says:

The strongest evidence to date indicates that conventional explosives missing from Iraq's Al-Qaqaa installation disappeared after the United States had taken control of Iraq.

Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by ABC television affiliate KSTP of St. Paul, Minn., which had a crew embedded with the 101st Airborne Division when it passed through Al-Qaqaa on April 18, 2003 — nine days after Baghdad fell.

Experts who have studied the images say the barrels on the tape contain the high explosive HMX, and the U.N. markings on the barrels are clear.

"I talked to a former inspector who's a colleague of mine, and he confirmed that, indeed, these pictures look just like what he remembers seeing inside those bunkers," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

Well, that's interesting. An anonymous, third-hand source says the pictures look just like the bunkers. How, exactly, does this anonymous source know that the barrels contain HMX?

As for the video, I haven't been able to make it play; maybe the traffic is too heavy. But how it can shed any light on the matters in question is doubtful. The KSTP site doesn't help much either; it shows photos like this one:

This picture appears to show a chain with a U.N. seal. What is the evidence for the proposition that there were 380 tons of high explosives behind the seal? There is none. It's already been reported that there were vents on the sides of the bunker where these materials were stored, through which the explosives could easily have been removed without breaking the seal. It's also been reported, here as well as in other news outlets, that Saddam's regime was able to detach seals, remove the weapons the seals supposedly guarded, and insert new seals. So the fact--if it is a fact--that there was a seal at Al Qaqaa proves nothing.

Actually, we don't even know that the footage was shot at Al Qaqaa, since the KSTP site says its brief footage was shot "at or near the Al Qaqaa munitions facility."

Bottom line: We don't yet know what quantities of explosives were stored at Al Qaqaa, or when they were moved. There is evidence that they were moved before the war began, with the collaboration of Russian special forces, and probably shipped to Syria. There are satellite photographs that corroborate such movements. As of April 4, 2003, the 3rd Infantry Division was in Al Qaqaa and discovered considerable quantities of munitions, but saw no sign of the 380 tons now, supposedly, in question. American commanders are confident that once American troops dominated the roads in the vicinity of Al Qaqaa, it would have been impossible for terrorists to somehow "loot" 754,000 pounds of explosives, an operation that would have taken a hundred men, dozens of large trucks, and two weeks, working 12-hour shifts, to complete. And, if we assume the worst case, as alleged by the Kerry campaign, and 377 tons of explosives--a figure that is clearly wrong, because around half of that amount disappeared while the U.N. was "guarding" the site--were somehow stolen, that would amount to less than 1/10 of 1% of the munitions that have been secured and, for the most part, destroyed by the American army.

And John Kerry wants to base his campaign on the claim that this constitutes "incompetence" on the part of the U.S. Army?

UPDATE: The AP article linked to above appears to have been revised, and no longer contains a link to the video. The video can be viewed at the KSTP site linked to above.

Posted by John at 10:57 PM  |    |  

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