Take whatever comfort you want from today's Newsweek poll, which shows President Bush with a six-point lead among likely voters. But I still think the Newsweek poll isn't worth much, one way or the other. The poll's internals aren't disclosed, but here is the key fact:

Independents seem to be moving toward Bush. Last week Kerry captured independents’ support 52 to 38 percent. This week, for the first time since the debates, Bush has retaken the lead among independents, 47 to 38. The margin of error is plus or minus 6 points for independents’ support....

Give me a break. I'd love to believe that independents are moving toward the President, but a twenty-three point swing in a week? Ridiculous.

Posted by John at 11:04 AM  |    |  

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/mt/mt-diespammers.cgi/8443

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Poll Follies:

» Newsweek poll is out from Commonwealth Conservative
It shows Bush up 6 among likely voters. Hindrocket at Powerline doesn't think the poll is worth the paper it's printed on. Or something like that. [Read More]

Tracked on October 30, 2004 11:26 AM

» 2004 Election: State Poll Analysis #19 from Secure Liberty
This is the nineteenth in a series focusing on our continuing exclusive feature, Tony Bauco's analysis of all the state polls. We're coming down the homestretch. Let's start with Tony's comments: A large number of new polls came out today. Ohio slid... [Read More]

Tracked on October 30, 2004 12:52 PM

» Yes, I'd like to believe that ... but from Right Side of the Rainbow
Under the headline, "Breaking to Bush? It’s still a statistical dead heat, but a new Newsweek poll gives Bush a boost," Newsweek reports the results of its own survey, which shows the president up over Mr. Kerry 51-45 among likely... [Read More]

Tracked on October 30, 2004 03:11 PM

» Final Mason-Dixon Battleground Polls Hint At Bush Win from Captain's Quarters
In what should be the final iteration of the Mason-Dixon polls that have been remarkably stable over the course of this election cycle, George Bush has a significant edge over John Kerry and appears headed to a victory on Tuesday.... [Read More]

Tracked on October 30, 2004 10:22 PM

» Election Gaming, Halloween Edition from Tim Berglund
Have been watching RCP’s roundup fairly compulsively for some time now, I can say with confidence that Kerry has had possession of the popular vote momentum for about two weeks. Bush has never lost his lead in any statistically meaningful way, but I th... [Read More]

Tracked on November 1, 2004 12:37 AM