In a front-page story, The Washington Post reports what everyone who has been paying attention knows -- Senator John McCain is courting Bush loyalists for his likely run for president in 2008. Will he succeed? Here, I think one must distinguish between two types of Bush loyalists. The first type, the ones who feature in the Post's story, consists of the operatives who pushed Bush to the forefront in 2000. Many of them have a strong pragmatic streak. Indeed, the Bush of that time was not an established conservative figure. His attraction consisted in his status as an ill-defined, somewhat right-of-center figure who, it was thought, would appeal to the electorate. McCain, by positioning himself as somewhat right-of-center (not a huge move) may well succeed in courting elements of this group.

The second group of Bush loyalists consists of his present voting base. This group is more conservative than his original backers and, in my opinion, more conservative than Bush himself. Winning this group over will be much more dicey proposition for McCain. In my case, for example, while I have tremendous respect for McCain the chances that I would vote for him in a Republican primary are poor. However, I certainly would expect to vote for him if he were the Republican nominee.

Posted by Paul at 09:19 PM  |    |