Yesterday, Michael Barone evaluated the fifty most competitive House races and predicted a winner (sure or likely) in each. The result: a dead heat, which raises some interesting questions:

My predictions would produce an almost evenly divided House: 219 Democrats, a net gain of 16, and 216 Republicans. Such a result would raise the question of whether Mississippi Democrat Gene Taylor, who declined to vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker in this Congress, would do so again, and whether another Democrat might do so—which could produce a Republican majority for speaker. My predictions also suggest, correctly, that I do not see this, at least yet, as a "wave" election.***

By the way, if Democrats do end up with a majority of the magnitude of 219-216, we probably won't know it on election night. There will be some races too close to call, others where the absentee votes remain to be counted, and, as John Fund has suggested, others where the result will be litigated.

A great deal is riding on the Republicans' ostensibly superior turnout operation.

Posted by John at 07:40 AM  |    |