There have been a lot of press reports today about the latest ABC News poll from Iraq. The Associated Press headlines: "Poll: Iraqis Gripped by Fear and Anger." The AP's account begins:

The optimism that helped sustain Iraqis during the first few years of the war has dissolved into widespread fear, anger and distress amid unrelenting violence, a survey found.

The poll - the third in Iraq since early 2004 by ABC News and media partners - draws a stark portrait of an increasingly pessimistic population under great emotional stress.

ABC News' own site draws even more negative conclusions from the poll:

A new national survey paints a devastating portrait of life in Iraq: widespread violence, torn lives, displaced families, emotional damage, collapsing services, an ever starker sectarian chasm — and a draining away of the underlying optimism that once prevailed.

Violence is the cause, its reach vast. Eighty percent of Iraqis report attacks nearby — car bombs, snipers, kidnappings, armed forces fighting each other or abusing civilians. It's worst by far in the capital of Baghdad, but by no means confined there.

These characterizations are not necessarily unfair; the poll data certainly are not good. But if you actually look at the underlying data, which you can access from the ABC News site, some interesting patterns emerge.

First, there is such a chasm between the responses of Sunni Arabs on one hand, and Shia Arabs and Kurds on the other, that it is pretty much pointless to average them. Across a broad range of questions, Sunnis answer both negatively and with a unanimity that is rare in opinion polling. For example, news accounts of the poll focus on its negative findings with respect to security. Yet, when asked to rate "today’s conditions in the village/neighborhood where you live" with respect to security, by a 61% to 39% margin, Shia respondents rated their local security "good" rather than "bad," and by an even wider 89% to 11% margin, Kurds rated their local situation "good." The average is dragged down by the Sunnis, who said 7% "good," 93% "bad." Is it really possible that there is such a stark difference in the security situation between Sunni and Shia neighborhoods?

Maybe. But the same gulf shows up across a broad range of questions. When asked whether it was right for the coalition to invade Iraq and depose Saddam, 70% of Shia and 83% of Kurds say Yes. On the other hand, Sunni responses were 2% Yes, 98% No. In America, I don't think you could get that level of unanimity on whether the sun rises in the east.

News accounts of the poll emphasize the pessimism expressed by Iraqis. But again, that pessimism is expressed selectively. When asked "how things overall in your life will be in a year from now," Shiites and Kurds are actually optimistic: 51% of Shiites and 55% of Kurds expect life to be better, while 30% in each category expect it to be the same. Only 18% and 12% respectively expect things to be worse. Again, the average is dragged down by the fact that only 4% of Sunnis expect life to be better, while 61% say "worse."

You see the same pattern in question after question. There is one question, however, on which respondents aren't so far apart: when should the U.S. leave Iraq? More Sunnis want the U.S. to leave now, but even in that group, 45% want us to stay until security is improved or until security responsibility can be handed over to Iraqi forces.

Pessimism about economic conditions is expressed in answers to a number of conditions, but the poll also finds that incomes are rising significantly, up 40% since 2005.

The bottom line, I think, is that, like all data out of Iraq, it is a very mixed bag. Obviously, the kind of schism the poll records between Shia and Kurds on the one hand and Sunni Arabs on the other is not a good thing. Yet one wonders whether Sunnis' poll responses accurately reflect their current conditions, or are more a means of venting and pleading their case. The ABC poll says that most Iraqis want their country to stay together; want it to be a democracy; and don't want the U.S. to leave until security can be maintained by Iraqi forces. In the scheme of things, that's not such a bad bottom line.

Via Power Line News.

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Posted by John at 07:35 PM  |    |