Code blue in Minnesota
In my NRO column on Minnesota's race for governor, commented on the political role played by the Minneapolis Star Tribune and made my only prediction of this election season:
[T]he Minneapolis Star Tribune presents a perennial challenge for Republicans in Minnesota. The paper dominates news coverage in the state and operates like the public relations arm of the state Democratic party. Its editorial page has been a relentless critic of Pawlenty. By itself the paper stakes Democratic candidates to a significant advantage in statewide races. In January 2005 I mentioned to Governor Pawlenty a Star Tribune column that seemed to have no purpose other than getting me fired from my day job. “Welcome to my world,” Pawlenty responded.Today the Star Tribune has published its final preelection poll. It shows shows Hatch leading Pawlenty 45-40 percent. Third-party candidate (and Dartmouth alum) Peter Hutchinson draws seven percent and seven percent are undecided. (In a graphic sidebar the Star Tribune also reports the results of all other recent polls and averages the results, showing Hatch with an average four-point lead. The recent "robopolls" by Survey USA and Rasmussen show Hatch with a one-point lead.) In light of the history of the Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, Dane Smith hedges his report of the poll results with an allusion to the mysterious "closing Republican surge" that the Star Tribune invokes to justify its poll results; it also quotes Governor Pawlwenty making the point I make above about the poll's traditional Democratic tilt:The Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll is instrumental in suppressing Republican morale. It tends to tilt Democratic compared with actual election results, a tilt that the Star Tribune’s pollster has comically attributed to a traditional Republican closing surge in Minnesota. On October 14 the Star Tribune published a Minnesota Poll showing Hatch leading Pawlenty 46-37 percent in a three-way race. The poll was taken in the midst of the media mania over Mark Foley; the poll’s timing seemed more calculated to demoralize Pawlenty supporters than to provide an accurate gauge of the race. In two previous Minnesota Polls Pawlenty and Hatch had run even.
This weekend the Star Tribune will publish its final preelection poll. If past experience is any guide, the poll will show Pawlenty with approximately five percent less of the vote than he will get in the actual election results on Tuesday.
Most respondents were interviewed before they were exposed to extensive news coverage of two missteps last week by Hatch's campaign.I offer the following observations: Hatch is down one point (from 46 percent to 45) since the Star Tribune's last Foleymania poll published on October 14, showing essentially no movement. Pawlenty is up three points since the Star Tribune's Foleymania poll (from 37 to 40 percent), within the margin of error but tending to show movement in his direction. The graphic sidebar shows 92 percent of Republicans support Pawlenty, which (if my math is right) would indicate a 37 percent Republican sample; 87 percent of Democrats support Hatch, which (same proviso) would indicate a 39 percent Democratic sample.Running mate Judi Dutcher was criticized for her lack of familiarity on camera with the E85 blend of ethanol and gasoline. Hatch responded with angry insults to reporters, in which he said he used the words "political hack" but acknowledged that he may have used the words "Republican whore."
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Republican and conservative interest groups in previous elections have demonstrated superior get-out-the-vote prowess. The final outcome in the 2004 presidential race in Minnesota gave Democrat John Kerry the win by 3.5 percentage points. A Minnesota Poll showed him ahead by 8 percentage points on the Sunday before the election. A final poll published on Election Day showed Kerry's lead dropping to 4 percentage points.
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At a campaign stop in La Crescent, Minn., Saturday afternoon, Pawlenty declared the results "good news. We're either tied or ahead, given the 3 to 9 percent historic bias against Republicans in the [Minnesota Poll]," he said.
I don't see any apparent party bias in the reported poll sample. The poll may be good and indicate that Pawlenty is trailing slightly. Nevertheless, if history is any guide and my five-point Minnesota Poll correction applies, the race is tied with the momentum in Pawlenty's direction. This seem to be a close race.
UPDATE: Reader Mark Kaplan advises that the Rasmussen Poll results released today show Hatch leading Pawlenty 47 percent to 45 percent, with six percent for Hutchinson and two percent undecided or for some other candidate.
CORRECTION: My calculation of the poll sample is mistaken. See "How could I forget?"
